Author: Norman Leahy

In an earlier item, I noted how developing economies were eager buyers of Russian oil – providing Russian strongman Vladimir Putin with a tidy cash flow to help underwrite his invasion of Ukraine. (RELATED: Russia Finds Foreign Customers to Prop Up War-Ravaged Economy) The idea that Putin is a “strongman” or that Russia is a major global player are still hotly debated topics. Writing in Foreign Affairs, the Carnegie Endowment’s Alexander Gabuev says Putin’s Russia is now little more than China’s vassal…and perhaps more pointed for the diminutive Putin, a “junior partner” in China’s globe-spanning plans: Beijing is unlikely to…

Remember how sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports were supposed to strangle the Putin regime’s ability to sustain its invasion of Ukraine? It’s beginning to look like the global demand for oil and gas, particularly in Asia, is undermining those sanctions. (RELATED: Unmistakable Sign of Strategic Cooperation Between Russia, Iran Emerges) As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas writes: …Russia has found new customers for the million barrels a day or so that European oil refiners have stopped purchasing due to self-sanctioning. Most of that crude is ending up in Asia — notably India — but also in Turkey and elsewhere in…

You’ve probably seen the stories about states using budget windfalls (and some federal COVID relief money) to cut various state taxes. It’s good politics, as most politicians like playing Santa Claus, and even better politics if it means the state can avoid spending the money instead. But are these truly the budgetary salad days some pols would have us believe? Or is all this tax cutting and good feeling covering up some very inconvenient budget problems? According to Truth in Accounting’s Sheila Weinberg, 39 states don’t have enough money in the bank to cover the promises they’ve made to state…

There’s still some debate over whether the U.S. economy has slipped into recession, despite strong job numbers and moderating oil prices. The debate is far less about economic reality than it is politics – just like everything else. If your team thinks it needs confirmation of a recession to goose its chances of winning in November, then any data that doesn’t bolster your case is cooked or crooked. It’s the same if your team denies there’s a recession because admitting one is at hand risks an Election Day wipeout. What if both swarms of partisan cheerleaders are wrong, and the…

There was another group, besides Republicans, who really didn’t like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). That group: the most strident of green activists, who think the bill is little more than a sop to the oil lobby and will do nothing to save humanity from extinction. Some of the comments are…breathtaking. Consider this tweet from former Bernie Sander staffer David Sirota: Dear F[**]king Idiots:Climate change doesn’t care whether your favorite political party gets a “win.” It doesn’t care whether your favorite MSNBC pundit is happy.It can only be stopped by actually reducing emissions, not by expanding oil drilling.Sincerely yours,Physics He seems…

The so-called “Inflation Reduction Act” (IRA) is being hailed as the federal government’s  most significant investment in the fight against climate to date. That’s the hype. What’s the ground truth about all those money – tax incentives and rebates and such – for green energy development? Don’t get your hopes up. (RELATED: Unpacking the Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act) As the R Street Institute’s Devin Hartman writes, there are a lot of bureaucratic roadblocks standing in the way of a greener grid: A closer look reveals that the main secular headwinds are all regulatory, putting aside episodic issues like…

Financial markets pay a great deal of attention to what Federal Reserve Bank presidents have to say about the broader economy. The reason is simple: “Fedspeak” can offer clues about where the Federal Reserve may be heading on interest rates and other regulatory matters. What should we make, then of remarks of Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin’s recent speech to the Shenandoah Valley Partnership? That inflation is top of mind at the Fed (obviously). And Barkin sees a path to taming inflation, but it won’t come easily: …a recession could happen in the process. (emphasis added) If one does, we…

A number of states are about to “celebrate” a special occasion: so-called tax holidays, which politicians tell their respective voters are great times to get out there and spend money and avoid sales taxes. (RELATED: Democrats Creating an IRS ‘Army’ – Larger Than Pentagon, FBI and Border Patrol Combined) Just so long as you buy the appropriate, government-approved products. And for a limited time only. To be fair, tax holidays allow politicians to look like they are giving people something really useful – a tax break. It allows the pols to seem magnanimous, fair-minded and just a little bit like…

Gasoline prices have been declining – steadily – for a few weeks now. While that gives some respite to politicians who’ve been sweating the effects high pump prices might have on the November elections, the big question – why are prices falling? – seems beyond most news reports. Over at FEE, Prof. Peter Jacobson writes that what we’re witnessing is a fundamental economic principle playing out in real time: …a principle called the second law of demand which states that people are relatively more responsive to price changes in the long run than in the short run. Economists call this…

The ill-named “Inflation Reduction Act” has been blessed by the Senate – thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. That’s the politics. What about the real world economics of this tax-and-spend package? According to an analysis from the Tax Foundation, the pre-Sinema version of the bill – sold as a mixture of essential investments (partially paid for) and inflation-fighting ideas – could make inflation worse even as it reduces wages and income: Using the Tax Foundation’s General Equilibrium Model, we estimate that the Inflation Reduction Act would reduce long-run economic output by about 0.1 percent and eliminate…