BREAKING โ While initial reports from Russia say Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the once powerful paramilitaryย Wagner Group,ย died in a plane crash near Moscow, others say the plane was shot down by Russian air defenses. (RELATED: Wagner Group Leader Killed In Plane Crash)
The Gray Zone telegram channel, associated with the Wagner Group, said that the plane was allegedly shot down by a Russian surface to air missile (SAM). ย
Still others speculate that Prigozhin is alive, and he transferred to a second almost identical aircraft reportedly flying near Moscow at the time.
Dmitry Gorenburg, a senior researcher at the Center for Naval Analysis, told Newsweek that although Prigozhin could have been aboard the second plane that safely landed, he offered an 80 percent probability that the Wagner chief is dead and that Russian air defense systems were responsible.
Videos reportedly show the private plane carrying Prigozhin and nine others coming down.
The plane, an Embraer Legacy 600 business aircraft reportedly had the registration number RA-02795, was said to belong to Prigozhin.ย It was traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg when it was downed.
Right now, we will go with the more likely scenario that he was killed by Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin was a dead man walking since his aborted Wagner coup against the Kremlin in late June.
I noted in myย piece on the coupย that from then on he should refrain from windows in tall buildings.
The short-lived Wagner mutiny led to aย dealย between the Kremlin and Prigozhin negotiated by Belarusian Presidentย Alexander Lukashenko that would allow Prigozhin andย his men to seek refuge in Belarus. (RELATED: Did Putin โHumiliate' China's Leader Xi By Deploying Nukes To Belarus?)
That deal never materialized since Prigozhin never went to Belarus and Prigozhin seemed to have found a new purpose on the โdark continent.'
I was preparing to write about Prigozhin's latest video,ย pushed out by the Gray Zone,ย promoting a new โmissionโย for his mercenaries in Africa with an expanded footprint.
But reports of his death may make that issue moot.
Meanwhile, some are predicting a second attempt by Wagner mercenaries to overthrow Putin if Prigozhin is dead.
Retired U.S. Lieutenant General Mark Hertling referred to reports on Wagner telegram channels that said: โif the death of the head of the PMC Wagner #Prigozhin was confirmed, they would organise a second โMarch of Justiceโ to #Moscow.โ
Hertling said:
โThose reacting to Prigozhin *possibly* being on the downed aircraft needs [sic] to understand the โloyalty' (because he pays well) he has from his mercs. Putin support is slowly declining in Russiaโฆthis won't help with thousands of Wagnerites & their families.โ
However, there are unconfirmed reports that Dmitry Utkin, a Wagner co-founder and high-ranking commander close to Prigozhin, was also killed in the crash.ย This would make any Wagner retaliation much harder.
As Newsweekย reported:
โIf that's true and they're both dead, then it becomes much more questionable whether Wagner can continue as kind of an independent organization,โ Gorenburg [at CNA] said. โThey may get subsumed by other PMCs (private military companies) more controllable by Russian MODs or Russian military intelligence. That could be the future.โ
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions ofย American Liberty News.
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1 Comment
Had bomb onboard vs missile hit